8.1%Monthly IRR (MTD)annualized run-rate +154%
+15.9%Cumulative return · since Jun 2026
59Settled calls
94.9%Hit rate
0.058Brier score
+186%Avg per-position entry yield (APY)
Cumulative return Jun 1 – Jul 12, 2026 · live sleeve
16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Jun 1 Jun 15 Jul 1 Jul 12 +15.9%
Monthly IRR vs benchmark
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% target 7.75%/mo 7.2% 8.1% JUN JUL · MTD
Settled positions Published on a 7-day delay
Date Market Side Entry Settled Per-position APY Result
2026-07-05Central-bank rate hold (June meeting)YES0.861.00+178%W
2026-07-04Parliamentary election: coalition majorityYES0.891.00+154%W
2026-07-03Monthly inflation print above thresholdNO0.911.00+142%W
2026-07-02Weekly shipping-count thresholdNO0.921.00+310%W
2026-07-01Referendum outcome (two legs)NO0.941.00+122%W
2026-06-28Bilateral meeting held by month-endYES0.841.00+205%W
2026-06-26Disclosure event by deadlineNO0.901.00+98%W
2026-06-24Candidate appears on final ballotNO0.880.00−100%L
2026-06-21Sanctions decision by quarter-endNO0.871.00+166%W
2026-06-18Equity index above threshold at month-endYES0.931.00+115%W
2026-06-15Treaty ratification by deadlineNO0.891.00+188%W
2026-06-12Officeholder remains in post through JuneYES0.951.00+96%W
Calibration — predicted vs realized
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.75 0.85 0.95 predicted → ↑ realized

n=59 settled calls · bucketed 0.80–0.99

Portfolio overview discipline, not contents
~100Open positions
11Themes
≤10%Max theme weight
A 10%B 10%C 10%D 9%E 9%F 9%G 9%H 9%I 9%J 8%K 8%

No single theme exceeds 10% of book. Theme labels are anonymized — the dashboard shows discipline, not holdings.