Plain-English research on how prediction markets work, how they resolve, and how to judge a track record honestly. No methodology secrets — just the concepts that make you a sharper reader of any market.
A clear, jargon-free explanation of prediction markets in 2026 — how they work, why a price is a probability, where they beat polls and pundits, and the risks to understand before you trade.
July 13, 2026The title of a prediction market is not its settlement criteria. A practical guide to reading resolution rules, spotting title-vs-rulebook traps, and understanding how markets on Polymarket and elsewhere settle before you risk a cent.
July 13, 2026Hit rate is easy to game. Calibration and the Brier score are not. A practical guide to reading a forecaster's track record honestly — including why sample size matters and how to spot the difference between skill and a hot streak.
July 13, 2026A plain-English literature review of the favorite-longshot bias — the decades-old finding that bettors overpay for longshots and underpay for favorites — across horse racing, sportsbooks, and prediction markets, with the leading explanations.
July 13, 2026Sizing beats picking. A practical, math-light guide to bankroll management for prediction and event markets — the Kelly criterion, why most people should bet a fraction of it, correlation risk, and the ruin math that ends accounts.
July 13, 2026Polls ask what people think; markets make them pay to be right. A research-backed look at why prediction-market prices frequently forecast events as well as or better than polls — and where each tool still has the edge.
July 13, 2026Most paid trading-signal services fail an honest audit. Here are the seven questions that separate real track records from screenshots — a checklist you should apply to every service you consider, including ours.
命中率最容易造假,校准度和 Brier 分数不会。一份写给预测市场交易者的实用指南:如何用统计学的眼光审视任何人的战绩,识别付费信号服务的红旗,以及为什么样本量必须说出口。
July 13, 2026用大白话讲清楚 Polymarket 和预测市场:价格为什么等于概率、钱从哪里来、和政治新闻的关系,以及新手最容易跳过、却最省钱的一步——先读结算规则。附诚实的风险清单。
July 13, 2026不谈玄乎的独家配方,只讲公开学术与常识框架里真实存在的四类打法:做市、事件研究、大热-冷门偏差、日历套利。每一类都配上它的真实风险与为什么大多数人做不好。
July 13, 2026套利在 Polymarket 上真实存在,但"无风险印钞机"是幻觉。这篇诚实拆解:套利空间到底在哪、正在如何被压缩,以及 gas、滑点、资金占用和结算风险这四项被忽略的成本如何吃掉纸面利润。
July 13, 2026月入数万、"挂着就赚钱"的机器人截图满天飞。这篇不吹不黑,给你一份怀疑者清单:7 个问题——要求样本量、要求含亏单、要求链上可验——把'看起来很赚'的机器人过滤成'经得起审的'机器人。
July 13, 2026命中率是信号服务最爱晒、也最会骗人的数字。这篇拆解它的四个陷阱——选择性、幸存者偏差、命中率不等于盈亏、没有分母——再给你评估任何付费信号服务真正该看的三把尺:样本量、校准度、Brier 分数。
July 13, 2026不吹不黑地评估 Polymarket:技术栈是否可靠、结算机制怎么运作、全球监管处于什么状态、以及你该认真对待的真实风险。合规部分只给一句诚实提醒——不同司法辖区请自行确认,本文不提供访问指引。