Polymarket Select — Systematic Prediction Market Yield · 预测市场量化收益
FOUNDING COHORT OPEN — premium community · limited seats · first 50 lock founding pricing
Systematic Prediction Market Yield

Systematic yield on
prediction markets.

A disciplined engine that monitors 47,000+ markets, applies proprietary hard filters, and holds high-conviction positions to settlement — logged, calibrated, auditable.

Independent research service. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by Polymarket.

0%+
Target annual return · portfolio
≈ 7–8% monthly, compounded
0% settled-call accuracy (n=59)
0+ logged & timestamped calls
Get Access See the engine

Limited membership · 40 API seats · founding pricing ends at 50 members

Live since June 2026 · 3 servers · 23 automated jobs

Fed rate decision: cut by September?
YES62¢
US recession in 2026?
NO78¢
Bitcoin above $150k by year-end?
YES55¢
2026 World Cup: France to win?
YES39¢
Ceasefire agreement by Q4?
NO71¢
Next AI model to top the leaderboard by Q4?
YES47¢
Oscars 2027: Best Picture favorite to win?
YES34¢
SpaceX Mars launch window met?
NO83¢

Illustrative markets for theme only. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket.

Portfolio target: 125%+ annual return (≈7–8% monthly, compounded) — above the verified public benchmark.

The Engine

Three steps. Run every day. On the record.

No discretionary hunches. Every position moves through the same pipeline — and every decision is written to a log you can audit.

01 / SCAN

Scan

47,000+ markets monitored, continuously.

02 / SELECT

Select

Proprietary hard filters. Under 1% of markets pass.

03 / HARVEST

Harvest

Hold to settlement, redeem, and roll into the next.

Curated Picks

What the desk is holding right now.

Each pick carries a side, an entry, and a per-position entry yield (annualized per position — distinct from the portfolio annual target). Two shown in full — the rest unlock with a subscription.

Market Side Entry Per-position APY Status
Trump–Aoun meeting July YES 0.85 >180% OPEN
Core CPI 2.7% June NO 0.92 >120% OPEN
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Track Record

Returns, settled, on the live sleeve.

Not a backtest. This is realized performance on redeemed positions, with the honest calibration figures beside it.

Cumulative return — live sleeve, Jun–Jul 2026
Cumulative return (%)
94.9%Hit rate (n=59 settled)
0.058Brier score
10%Max drawdown reference
Settled wins · per-position entry yield
Johor GE (BN+PH)WIN+180% APY
UFO disclosure NOWIN+95% APY
Iran-shipping series NOWIN+240% APY
US–MOU withdrawal NOWIN+160% APY
Slovakia referendums NOWIN+120% APY
Short-horizon leg NOWIN+1,400% APY
Macro count market NOWIN+110% APY

Hit rate reflects deep-favorite selection; return is measured per position against market price at entry. Past performance ≠ future returns.

Benchmark

Validated against the best public book.

@car — a top-tier Polymarket P&L leaderboard account: +$1.29M realized over 582 days — ~93% per year on the full book, public and on-chain verifiable. Our target: 125%+ per year — set above the verified benchmark, annual against annual.

The only performance dollar figure on this page is independent, publicly verifiable third-party data.

+$1.29MRealized P&L over 582 dayspublic · on-chain
~93%Annualized, full book@car leaderboard
125%+/yrOur annual target vs the ~93% verified benchmarktarget · annual vs annual
582Days live & verifiableon-chain history
Return Scenarios

Compound toward the annual target — three run-rates.

Drag the holding horizon and see compounded growth across conservative, base, and stretch run-rates (annualized, compounded monthly).

Holding horizon
12 months
112
Conservative +125% / yr (≈7% / mo) 2.25× +125% total return
BASE Base +152% / yr (≈8% / mo) 2.52× +152% total return
Stretch +214% / yr (≈10% / mo) 3.14× +214% total return

Scenarios compound to the annual target (125%+/yr ≈ 7–8%/mo); illustrative only, not a promise or offer.

Pricing

Read the signals, take the feed, or delegate.

Every tier runs off the same engine. Choose how much you want to operate yourself.

FOUNDING COHORTFirst 50 subscribers lock founding pricing forever.
Signal Unlimited signals
$69 / mo
  • Daily curated picks with rationale and sizing
  • Full judgment log access
  • Resolution-risk notes
  • Discord alerts
  • Cancel anytime
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MOST POPULAR API Limited to 40 seats
$99 / mo
  • Everything in Signal
  • REST + webhook feed of live signals & order specs
  • Paper-trade harness
  • Rate-limited keys
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USDC · crypto-native payments
Managed
30% of profits
  • Full delegation on your capital
  • Same engine, same limits
  • High-water mark, no management fee
  • Limited capacity — waitlist
Join Waitlist
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EARLY ACCESS — WAITLIST Data Institutional & professional traders

The research layer behind the desk. Built for funds and professional traders.

  • Order-flow & research datasets
  • Full market history API
  • Settlement & oracle analytics
  • Custom feeds
from $499 / mo
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FAQ

The honest questions.

+Why deep favorites?
Contracts priced near the top of the range settle in favor far more often than their price implies, yet the crowd keeps overpaying for unlikely outcomes on the other side. Taking the high-probability side captures that mispricing while keeping single-name variance low — provided the position is held to settlement and sized under a hard cap.
+Where does the edge come from?
One structural source above all: the favorite–longshot premium — a well-documented bias where participants systematically overpay for unlikely outcomes and underpay for likely ones (Snowberg & Wolfers, 2010, among others). Our engine isolates where that premium is largest and the resolution is cleanest. The specifics of that selection are what a subscription pays for.
+What are the risks?
A high-probability position still resolves against you sometimes — that is the whole trade. Single-market blow-up risk is absorbed by diversification and hard position caps, not by stop-losses. Beyond that: liquidity risk on thin books, and platform / oracle risk — a market can resolve against the facts if its oracle is disputed. None of these are hedged away; they are sized down.
+Can I cancel?
Yes. Signal and API are month-to-month and cancel anytime from your account — no lock-in, no cancellation fee. Access runs to the end of the paid period.
+How do I pay?
USDC on-chain. No card required. Subscriptions are billed monthly in USDC to a payment address generated for your account; access activates on confirmation.
+Why is Managed capacity limited?
The strategy has a real capacity ceiling. Book depth on prediction markets is finite, and pushing more capital through the same maker queues erodes the very edge it harvests. To keep fills clean and limits intact, Managed runs a waitlist rather than accepting unlimited capital. The same logic applies to API seats: seat caps protect execution quality for every subscriber — capacity is a hard constraint of the strategy, not a marketing device.